Guerillas In The Mist Part two!
This is the second half of a two-part essay. Part one can be read right here.
Right. I already covered much of my thoughts on both the Alternative Press Expo and conventions, at least for new creators, in general. That post provoked some fascinating discussion and I think it’s been pretty cool that at no point has it ever devolved into snarkiness or name calling. That’s a bloody refreshing thing to see, at least from where I sit. So thanks to all, both on the LJ and through email, who got in touch with me about this.The first thing I really want to touch on this time is freebies. The consensus of opinion would seem to be that it’s not a good idea to do. You don’t really risk any alienation, especially with ashcans, by selling your work. And hopefully it creates more of a resonance with person who bought it. They paid for it because they wanted it – and that very wanting will hopefully move it up their reading pile. That’s difficult to argue with and I think is well worth considering by any con exhibitor. The drawback to this approach, and with selling to build exposure in general, is you shrink your potential audience. Not everyone who likes your stuff is going to pay for it. The catch here is that we don’t know how many people we miss out on. If I take the 240 people who stopped by our table as accurate, I certainly don’t think that any where close to that number would have bought the ashcan. Some will have, sure. How many? I dunno. 20? 50? 100? More? I’ll never know.
The disconnect, in a sense, is that the ashcans will never sell for very much money (a buck or two). In my case, 300 ashcans cost me about $87 Canadian. So, if I sold 87 of ‘em for $1 (albeit in US funds), I’ve pretty much earned back my investment. Anymore is gravy. But if I can only sell 87 of them…or even 100, I’ve shrunk my potential audience by quite a bit. I’ve also lost out on the freebie table (yes, no big loss, but still…). Again, I figure I gave out 215 ashcans at our table over the two days that APE was held. If I could only sell 87 copies of the ashcan, that’s only 40% (87/215) of the audience I hit with the giveaways. Yes, one could easily argue that some of those 215 just picked up the ashcan because it was free. I’d argue that, for the majority, this wasn’t the case but whatever…some people grabbed it just because it’s free. I don’t know, however, that I could sell 87. I might have been able to (after all, we had a good table location) but I don’t know. The dollars, even if I sold ‘em for $2, doesn’t really enter into it. Hell, even if I sold ALL of them at $2 each that’s only $600 in total revenue. Not that this would have happened, but hopefully you see my point. There is only so much that you can expect from this type of promotion dollar-wise.
From another point of view,
though, I’d still rather give them away. The jury seems out on the
amount of feedback one will get even if they were for sale. It would
seem that the simple purchase of an ashcan, in and of itself, isn’t
quite enough to get an email, blog mention, or whatnot. It might
increase the odds to some extent because, again, someone has now paid
for something and that may give it some more meaning to them, but…if
they aren’t a blogger or even keen on emailing a stranger, it probably
won’t make much of a difference. So, that brings us right down to a
crass dollars point. For $87, I was able to reach 300 people with my
stuff. Yes, I haven’t heard back from them (well, save for this very nice bit.
Yes, that’s disappointing. And yes, I don’t know exactly how much of a
“quality” 300 that truly was. But it only cost me 29 cents ($87/300)
per attendee to do it. That’s not bad. And long-term, who knows what
will happen? I might get an email a year from now. For $87, that's not
bad at all.How much did the entire trip cost us, then? Well, let’s see. I have to exclude the vacation part because if we had only gone down for APE itself this would have certainly knocked off a few days. Let’s assume we flew down Friday afternoon and left on Sunday after the show. That would only give me two days of accomadations to worry about. So, our hotel room was $100 per night split three ways (call it $34 each). We did eat out a few times, but we also hit a grocery store and went fairly conservative on the food budget. For this time-frame, we may have spent $125 each. The plane tickets were fairly expensive, so we’re looking at about $400 for each of us. To save money we drove from Ottawa to Toronto and back again. Parking the van we drove in was $15 per day (so $45) and gas was about $200 in total (yeesh!). Three ways that about $67. We also had to get around the Bay area, so toss in BART and MUNI fair and a few cab rides with all our gear. Probably another $60 or about $20 each. Toss in some miscellaneous expenses (medicine, snacks, etc…) and your easily looking at about $700 for each of us for the Friday-Sunday timeframe. That’s not too bad.
Now, the con. the table at APE was $185. The ashcans were $87. The giclee prints were probably about $3.00 each (including acid free backing boards and bags) and I did 50. So $150. Bookmarks I already had and same for the candy. Call it another $150. The 55 galleys were actually the most expensive. Printing, tax and shipping were just shy of $400 (and a big shout-out goes to a certain Bay area retailer who allowed us to ship them directly to their store. Lulu.com’s shipping price to Canada would have added another $200 to that price. But by shipping them directly to San Fran we saved these dollars). Mailing the press kits cost me $2 each and I did 24 of ‘em. So that’s another $50. If I really wanted to get picky I’d add a portion of the banner I bought back in 2005 and some other sundry display items, but on the off-chance I’m overestimating I’ll leave them out. Roughly what I’m looking at is a total “table set-up fee” of about $1000. Probably a bit higher with the exchange rate, but eh…Now, of course, not everything was used up. I came back with 10 galleys and about 25 prints so they should probably be knocked off the total price. This depends on your point of view, though, because they were done specifically for APE and have to be accounted for. Some would argue that they should be deducted off, but I’m going to leave them. That I didn’t move everything at APE doesn’t mean they should be dropped from the calculation. The same goes for some of the bookmarks that were left for stores.
So…if I had just gone by myself, I’d be looking at $1000 in table fees plus another $700 (at least) in travel costs. So $1700. Since Moggy came with me, then that kicks up to $2400. Jason, our third tablemate had to pay his own $700, but let’s exclude him from it just for clarity’s sake (no offence, Jay). Conservatively, then, I’m looking at $2400 for APE ’07. And again, please keep in mind that would be doing the con as close to it’s actual schedule as possible. Flying down on Friday night and leaving right after the con was over on Sunday evening. We actually spent more, but that’s for the vacation part of the trip.
$2400. That’s a big chunk of change. Now, I’m actually prepared to spend that money purely on promotion. It’s the risk and expense about doing anything entrepreneurial. If we had sold “stuff” at APE, we’d actually only have a few things to really sell. This is quite important to keep in mind from the previous discussion. I could have sold the ashcans. And I could have sold the prints. The galleys, though, can’t be sold. They are galleys, after all, and not completed books. Yes, they were expensive, but galleys (also known as Advance Reader Copies or just “Advance Reader’s”) are a necessary part of publishing. Kinda unknown in comics and the Direct Market, but I’ve long believed in them (for why, see this). They are there to give out to publishers, retailers and the media and they did their job. That really leaves the ashcans and the prints. I probably could have sold the prints for $20 (which would have been a helluva return on investment, I hasten to add) but I doubt I would have moved that many. If I managed to sell 15, we’re only talking about $300. The ashcans, as I covered above, are tricky. Since they were only 7 pages of story plus a little preview of my book (so six 8 ½ by 11 pages folded in half and stapled), it would have been tough to sell them for $2. So say I sold all 300 for $1 each. That’s another $300. So $600, tops, and there’s really no way I would have hit that.
Would
selling the ashcans have gotten more feedback then giving them out for
free? Honestly, and partially informed by the discussion on my last
post, I doubt it. My thinking is that it’s just not something that most
attendees are comfortable doing. Regardless of whether they buy it or
not, your chance of hearing back from someone is pretty small. Most
likely no more than 2%. But most likely not much higher than 5%. So
call it 5%. True, it’s probably a higher percentage than a response
rate from freebies. But the catch is that your getting your stuff into
the hands of less people. Say freebies have a response rate of
1% and sales have one of 5%. I gave out 300 ashcans so I’d hope to hear
back from 3 people (300*1%). If I could only sell my ashcan to 87
people (my breakeven point on them), that’s only 4 people (87*5%) – 1 extra person.
While we’ll never know actual numbers here, it’s certainly something to
consider. From my point of view, I’d rather get my work into more
people’s hands for free and take my chances. But this is just one
approach and your mileage may certainly vary.One other thought on attendees. As I said, I believe we saw 240 people at our table and I’m pretty damn skippy that we gave out ashcans to 215 of them. Now, there were certainly a number of attendees who just walked right by, not even taking a peek at us. Presumably they had other exhibitors to go see or friends to meet up with. So, about 240 people stopped by our table. It’s possible that another 1000 (and I’m guessing wildly here) walked right on by. It could be 100 people. It could be 2000 people. I don’t know. So, we know that the Comic Con folks claimed 4800 attendees at the ’06 show. If we had in front of us about 1250 attendees over the two days, that’s only 26% (1250/4800) of the total attendance. Well, as I’ve said before I do think the attendance was lower this year. I guessed 4200 and let’s go with that. That bumps it up to 30% (1250/4200). Still – is it possible that we only saw 30% of the total attendees? On the main floor? Doesn’t that seem wonky?
Well, ok…what if I’m wrong about the number of “walk bys” that didn’t stop? Say it WAS 2000. That gives us around 2250 attendees. It would also mean that only 11% of those actually stopped by (240/2250), but for arguments sake let’s run with it. That’s still only 54% of the attendance (2250/4200). Weird. Hmmm…let’s say, then, that APE does add the exhibitors to the paid attendee figure. We can only guess at this, but if every table had the maximum of 4 people at it, then we’re looking at 1352 exhibitors (338*4). Taking that out of the 4200 total attendees, we’re left with 2848 (4200-1352). That’s 2848 who paid the admission price to come in. If we did have 1250 go by our table, then we still only saw 44% of this total (1250/2848). If so, where the hell are the other 56% of attendees going? Again, I’m not saying anyone is lying. But this is the exact reason why the attendance has to be audited. And made public. As has been mentioned, the Comic Con is a registered charity so it’s highly doubtful that their lying about the numbers. I suspect, though, that they are inflating the attendance figures with the exhibitor count. We have one clue that could back this up. The 2007 program book (page 1, paragraph 2) says this, “In 2006, Ape continued its run as the best-attended indy comics show in the country as 4,800 people packed into the Concourse Exhibition Center.” Think about that. “…4800 people packed into the Concourse…” That could easily include every person who was in the Concourse, both exhibitor and attendee. My best guess (though again, I could be wrong) is that the “real” attendance, defined as those attendees who ponied up and purchased a ticket, was much closer to 2800. Possibly even lower. Plus, how are they measuring “indy comics show”? Staple, Space, SPX and which others? Are these even included?
In the meantime, we don’t really know anything. If 4800 people actually bought a ticket in 2006, then the attendee/table ratio is 14 to 1 (4800/338). If it’s only 2800, though, that drops to 8 to 1 (2800/338). It also means that the average hourly attendance is 187 (2800/15). Now, while that does seem low, keep in mind it would be inflated by the lull periods (opening and closing). And, of course, by the fact that a certain number of exhibitors would be wandering the floor. Without measurable stats, though, we don’t know…and we’ll never know. If the attendance numbers are closer to 2800, though, it may mean that Comic Con should consider restricting the number of tables to get the ratio back up. A 10 to 1 ratio would drop the number of tables to 280. Of course, the problem is that they’d have to raise the table prices to compensate for the loss of income. With 58 tables gone (338-280), that’s $10,730.00 missing (58*$185). The early bird special would have to rise to $225 to compensate. I doubt anyone would be happy with that, but it might be something that should be considered. Especially when you think that SPX’s early bird tables cost $300 and they list their 2006 attendance as over 3000 attendees AND exhibitors. If APE has over 4000 attendees AND exhibitors (which I’m arguing here), then the table cost should go up. And they should cap the number of tables available, too. SPX only has about 170 tables and only 2 badges per table (so only 340 exhibitors). So about 2650 paying attendees. Call it 2600 just in case. With 170 tables, that’s a ratio of 15 to 1. Quite a difference.
It’s not hard, folks. Each exhibitor should expect a reasonable chance for success. Be it financial or just exposure. Or both. As I pointed out here, there's a decent chance that most attendees won't have loads of cash on them. If you’re an exhibitor, consider carefully the attendance to table ratio at whatever con you’re targeting. That should be one factor (not the only factor, though) that goes into whether you want to exhibit there.
From APE's point of view, the first step is transparency. What’s the real attendance? And this should be put out publicly. Next, they need to run surveys (even if the response rate is 10% or lower) of both the exhibitors and the attendees. Especially the attendees, though it’s obviously too late for this year’s show. And they should certainly follow-up with as many exhibitors as possible to determine if the show was a success (however each exhibitor measures that). This would go a long way in helping build confidence. Edited to add: I just realized that the ALA does exactly this. Check out this page - it breaks down what the real attendance was and what the total number of exhibitors were, too. This is exactly what the Comic Con people need to do.
Artists pay to be at cons like APE. It’s only fair that they can make as educated a decision as possible about where they spend their hard earned dollars. Transparency leads to honesty and trust. That, above all, should be the mantra of every con. Artists deserve that first and foremost. Some may make money. Some will lose money. But everyone deserves to be treated fairly.
Before we go any further, I’m gonna talk for a moment about the riddle of comic book and graphic novel marketing. Just to make sure we’re all clear on this, ok? The riddle is this: how do you create enough awareness of a new book that folks are talking it up? Especially talking it up to their local retailers (be they Direct Market retailers, Book Trade retailers or both). Retailers need information before they place there orders and, with a new book by an unknown creator, there is very rarely anything for them to hang their hat on. If a book in this situation gets ordered at all, it’ll often be because the retailer believes in the publisher of said book and is willing to take a chance. Even that, though, often results in “onesies and twosies” and that’s it. And, in my experience as a bookseller, it doesn’t happen that often. For titles to be ordered broadly enough, there really needs to be a tangible sense of interest and excitement; retailers need to able to feel this. While some retailers will hand-sell a book (Moggy and I did this directly with Mary Doria Russell’s fantastic debut novel The Sparrow), creators cannot rely on this to happen. If it does at all, it’ll only happen a handful of times.
Remember, too, that most new books by unknown creators fair poorly. It takes passionate fans and dedicated retailers to change this. It’s also critical to get “gate keepers” involved in the book as early as possible. Advance Reader Copies need to be in circulation and reviewers from Kirkus, Publishers Weekly and the like need to be onside. Even with that, though, it’s extremely difficult for a new book by an unknown author to create any impact sales-wise. Keep in mind here that I’m not talking about unbelievable sales. Just healthy ones. The Book Standard back in 2005 had a fascinating article by Kimberly Maul that described some of this data. The key bit was this, “93 percent of ISBNs sold fewer than 1,000 units in 2004, according to Nielsen BookScan.” This is for the entire 2004 book sales figures in the United States.
I’ll say that again, just so we’re clear. This is for the entire 2004 book sales figures in the United States as measured by Neilsen BookScan.
1000 copies. 93% of ISBNs.
Chilling, ain’t it?
As Maul’s article points out, bestsellers drive the book trade. In graphic novels, we see much the same thing. ICV2.com has been indexing sales figures from Diamond for a number of years now so there’s a fair amount of data about what sells in Direct Market shops. Without going into the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Direct Market, it’s important to state that much of the same thing is seen. Diamond annually releases their Year End Sales Charts and Market Share Anaylsis (Newsarama has the 2006 one here) and it’s pretty clear. If your not one of the four brokered publishers (or Viz, Tokyopop or DDP), you ain’t in Diamond’s top 100 for ’06. No Fantagraphics. No Top Shelf. No Slave Labor. No nothing.
More importantly are the titles that are missing. No Maus. No Persepolis. No Blankets. No Ghost World. No Strangers in Paradise. Nothing.
That doesn’t mean these titles don’t sell. Of course they do. They don’t sell in the Direct Market to nearly the same numbers as Spidey, X-Men, Batman or whatever sells. It’s just the way it is.
Obviously,
most people would want to make a living with their book. Maybe not a
great living, but a decent one. I’m not talking about striking it rich
here or anything like that. I am talking about earning more through
one’s art then you’d get flipping burgers at MacDonalds. With fewer
than 1000 copies sold, though, most prose writers won’t be able to
accomplish that. Really, you need to be, as Maul points out, one of the
“7 percent of ISBNs (that) sold more than 1,000 units and made up the
remaining 87 percent of sales.” So, you can do your art and put it “out
there” and hope that you catch lightning in a bottle. The odds are
extremely long that this will happen, but there are success stories out
there. The only alternative is to try and market your work. Get it out
there and try and build awareness with the public at large. Get people
talking about it and get people passionate about it. The drawback is
that it does cost money to do this. And, of course, not all marketing
succeeds. A lot of it fails. But to do nothing almost certainly means
failure, so my preference is to do something. And make that “something”
be as educated as possible.Which brings us to cons. And brings us back to APE. The big problem with conventions, as I now see it, is that the amount of measurable data is sorely lacking. Without having any firm idea of what the attendance figures could be, it’s impossible to evaluate whether APE is well-attended or not (as I pointed out here, all we know is that 2006’s attendance could be anywhere between roughly 3500 to 6200). What’s doubly frustrating about this is that other cons and expos (albeit outside the comic book industry as a whole) DO qualify their attendance figures (see Book Expo Canada and the American Library Association, for example). On top of it, APE states things that are impossible to quantify (“APE continued its run as the best-attended indy comics show…”). Just give us information, usable information, and we can take it from there. Without it, potential exhibitors can’t determine whether a show like APE is the right show for them. Which, of course, is the entire point.
Was APE right for us? In hindsight, no, it probably wasn’t. As a promotional outreach, it most likely failed. The only piece of feedback I’ve received from the 300 ashcans we printed up is this lovely review. While I’ve had a number of emails about this blog series, I still have not received a single piece of email regarding that little short story. It’s now been three weeks, and while it may have seemed early at the time of the first post, three weeks is a goodly chunk of time to have passed. So, from a measurable data point of view, it was clearly a failure. Disappointing, sure, but such is life.
The immediate future, then, will be readjusting the marketing plan to take this failure into account. From this point of view, failure is actually not a bad thing. We learn by doing and I now know that this type of con isn’t that effective for what I want and need it to be. That doesn’t mean the entire marketing plan goes out the window or that I just give up. It just means I want to chew over my options before I go any further. I suspect part of this readjustment will be a stronger focus on the book trade and library expos and possibly shows like MoCCA’s Art Festival (though they suffer from much the same lack of information that APE does). We’ll see.
The
last question, then, is this. Was it a good vacation? After all I’ve
written about, was it worthwhile going to San Francisco? Especially
from a putting-your-feet-up and getting-the-hell-out-of-Ottawa-for-a-wee
Damn right it was.
‘Cuz, see, it wasn’t just about going to APE. It was going to another part of North America and seeing and doing things we don’t get to do all that often. Seeing Moggy smile like crazy when she walked along the beach with the Pacific Ocean right there is magic. Was APE, taken in context, what I hoped for? No, it wasn’t. Was the vacation, taken in context, all I hoped for? Oh, yes. Definitely. That’s the whole point of a vacation, after all. Seeing people you don’t see often enough. And being sad when you have to say “so long.” That, folks, was worth the $3000 right there.
Or to quote Alfred Noyes’ Forty Singing Seamen, “...there's a magic in the distance, where the sea-line meets the sky.”
Von
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Von Allan
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